Daily Card (historical view)
April 5, 2026 · Hollywoodbets Scottsville
Card Outcome
R-17.90
4 of 10 bets paid
Venue Confidence Reduced — stakes scaled to 0.93×
30d ROI: -11.6% (30 bets) · 90d ROI: 97.9% (73 bets)
Win Bets
No qualifying win bets today.
Place Bets
| Horse | Race | SP | Conf | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE GULDEN{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} CL △ BANKER | R12:10 | 2x | ★★★★☆ | R7 | 1 ✓ | R0.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} CL △ TIGHT-3 | R13:20 | 4x | ★★☆☆☆ | R7 | 4 | R-7.00 |
| GOOD OMEN{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} CL △ SPREAD | R13:55 | 4x | ★★☆☆☆ | R7 | 2 ✓ | +R3.50 |
| MISS TWINKLE{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} CL △ SPREAD | R15:40 | 4x | ★★☆☆☆ | R7 | 10 | R-7.00 |
| ARVERNI PRINCESS{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} CL △ BANKER | R16:15 | 3x | ★★★★☆ | R7 | 1 ✓ | +R2.10 |
| WHO BLINKED{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} CL △ SPREAD | R16:50 | 3x | ★★☆☆☆ | R7 | 4 | R-7.00 |
Swingers
| Race | Horse 1 | Horse 2 | Conf | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13:55 | GREEK HEIRESS | GOOD OMEN | ★★☆☆☆ | R5 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| R15:40 | ICE RAIN | MISS TWINKLE | ★★☆☆☆ | R5 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| R16:50 | CITY OF LOVE | WHO BLINKED | ★★☆☆☆ | R5 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
THAW WATCH Experimental · Place market
R5 stake · SP 13-20Place bets on suppressed-but-warming candidates: trainer momentum is recovering and SP is in the 13-20 band where backtested return holds. New as of 2026-05-29 — treat as experimental until 8 weeks of live data confirm the shape.
| Race | Horse | SP | Trainer | Conf | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R13:20 | HARPA{# Confidence-Limit signal badge. Expects: cl_pass, cl_hit_rate, cl_lcb, cl_n. Renders only when cl_n is set (i.e. the bet had a calibrated cell, n>=min_n). Non-destructive pilot — flags whether a bet clears the Wilson lower-bound gate. #} | 15x | Paul Lafferty | ★★☆☆☆ | R5 | 3 ✓ | +R12.50 |
DOUBLES
Optional · Advanced Bet
15 chains · R75.0
R-51.25 · 3/15 cashed
▼
Cross-race chains on your place picks. Stake R5 on the first horse — if it places, the full return rolls onto the second. Backtest: ~+15% ROI long-term. Treat as variance-heavy upside, not core.
| Leg A | → Leg B | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE GULDEN R12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | LOLLY WILLOWES R13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| DE GULDEN R12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | GOOD OMEN R13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | 1→2 ✓ | +R2.50 |
| DE GULDEN R12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | MISS TWINKLE R15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| DE GULDEN R12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS R16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R5.0 | 1→1 ✓ | +R1.50 |
| DE GULDEN R12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | WHO BLINKED R16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES R13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | GOOD OMEN R13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES R13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE R15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES R13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS R16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES R13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED R16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| GOOD OMEN R13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE R15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| GOOD OMEN R13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS R16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R5.0 | 2→1 ✓ | +R4.75 |
| GOOD OMEN R13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED R16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| MISS TWINKLE R15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS R16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| MISS TWINKLE R15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED R16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
| ARVERNI PRINCESS R16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | WHO BLINKED R16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R5.0 | ✗ | R-5.00 |
TRIPLES
Optional · Advanced Bet
20 chains · R40.0
R-36.10 · 1/20 cashed
▼
3-leg ATC chains on your place picks. Stake R2 — if it places, return rolls onto the second, then the third. All three must place to cash. Backtest: ~+2.5% ROI, 31% hit rate.
| Leg A | → Leg B | → Leg C | Stake | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R2.0 | 1→2→1 ✓ | +R1.90 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| DE GULDEN 12:10 · M1 ★★★★☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| LOLLY WILLOWES 13:20 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| GOOD OMEN 13:55 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
| MISS TWINKLE 15:40 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | ARVERNI PRINCESS 16:15 · M1 ★★★★☆ | WHO BLINKED 16:50 · M2 ★★☆☆☆ | R2.0 | ✗ | R-2.00 |
⚡ Watch (thawing yards) No stake — monitor for exotics
| Horse | Race | SP | Trainer / Jockey | 7d form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HARPA | R13:20 | 15x | Paul Lafferty / M Yeni | 1/4 placed |
| BRUH | R15:05 | 9x | Paul Lafferty / S Veale +0.5 kg | 1/4 placed |
🎯 Upset Watch No stake · SP 10-13 · watch for race upsets
Mid-tier horses with a hot T×J combo + sliding handicap mark or fresh return. Historical 32-33% place rate in this band (vs 29% baseline). Not a card bet — indicator only.
| Horse | Race | SP | Trainer | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAYLOR'S VERSION | R13:55 | 11x | Candice Bass | T×J hot fresh return |
| TRIPPI'S SILK | R16:50 | 11x | Candice Bass | T×J hot fresh return |
Win: R
Place: R7+7+7+7+7+7
Thaw: R5
Swingers: R5+5+5
Optionals: R115.0
Total: R62
+ R115.0 optionals
· D:R75.0
· T:R40.0