Venue Performance Stats

Powered by Venue Outcome Markov (14th confidence factor)

Current State

P

Last top-pick Placed 2nd/3rd

Momentum Score

0.313

P(Win | current state)

Confidence Factor

×0.8132

Portfolio multiplier [0.75 – 1.35]

Races Analysed

2406

Venue-specific matrix

Top Pick Won

776

31.6% win rate

Top Pick Placed (2nd/3rd)

735

61.4% placed rate (incl win)

Top Pick Below 3rd

948

948 / 2459 races

Recent Sequence (most recent first, max 20)

P G P G P G P P G G P B G P G P B G B B
G = Won P = Placed B = Below 3rd

Long-run Stationary Distribution

Expected state distribution if the model ran infinitely at this venue.

G — Won 34.1%
P — Placed 2nd/3rd 32.7%
B — Below 3rd 33.3%

Transition Matrix

Row = current state · Column = next state · Values = probability (with Laplace α=1.0 smoothing).

From \ To G (Win) P (Place) B (Below)
G — Won 38.1% 30.9% 31.0%
P — Placed 2nd/3rd ← current 31.3% 36.0% 32.7%
B — Below 3rd 32.6% 31.3% 36.1%

Top-Pick Accuracy by Race Slot

Race slot = off-time order within a meeting (Race 1 = first off). Non-numeric positions excluded. Overall: 2403 races · Win 32.3% · Top-1 placed 64.1% · Any top-2 placed 82.6% · Any top-3 placed 90.6%

Race # n Win % 2nd % 3rd % Top-1 placed Any top-2 placed Any top-3 placed
Race 1 297 37.4% 23.2% 11.4% 73.4% 87.9% 94.9%
Race 2 299 37.8% 22.4% 13.7% 74.9% 91.0% 96.7%
Race 3 296 30.4% 19.3% 13.2% 63.9% 83.4% 90.2%
Race 4 296 27.4% 18.9% 12.2% 59.5% 78.4% 87.5%
Race 5 295 31.9% 19.0% 8.8% 60.7% 80.3% 91.2%
Race 6 290 30.7% 20.3% 10.3% 62.4% 79.7% 88.3%
Race 7 287 37.6% 15.3% 11.5% 65.9% 84.3% 90.2%
Race 8 292 27.7% 17.1% 9.2% 55.1% 77.4% 87.3%
Race 9 48 18.8% 14.6% 6.2% 45.8% 72.9% 81.2%
Race 10 3 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 66.7%

Cumulative — Top-1 Placed

All legs: model's #1 pick finishes in the top 3.

Legs Cumulative %
1 race 73.4%
2 races 55.0%
3 races 35.1%
4 races 20.9%
5 races 12.7%
6 races 7.9%
7 races 5.2%
8 races 2.9%
9 races 1.3%
10 races 0.4%

Cumulative — Any Top-2 Placed

All legs: at least one of the top-2 picks finishes in the top 3.

Legs Cumulative %
1 race 87.9%
2 races 79.9%
3 races 66.7%
4 races 52.3%
5 races 42.0%
6 races 33.5%
7 races 28.2%
8 races 21.8%
9 races 15.9%
10 races 5.3%

Cumulative — Any Top-3 Placed

All legs: at least one of the top-3 picks finishes in the top 3.

Legs Cumulative %
1 race 94.9%
2 races 91.8%
3 races 82.8%
4 races 72.4%
5 races 66.1%
6 races 58.3%
7 races 52.6%
8 races 46.0%
9 races 37.3%
10 races 24.9%

Exotic Bet Analysis

Per-leg qualifying hit rate and cumulative probability across all legs. Top-1 = model’s #1 pick qualifies. Top-2 = any of top-2 qualifies. Top-3 = any of top-3 qualifies.

PA 7 legs
pos ≤ 3 (top-3)
Full hit (Top-3)
48.4%
Race n Top-1% Top-2% Top-3%
R2 299 74.9% 91.0% 96.7%
R3 296 63.9% 83.4% 90.2%
R4 296 59.5% 78.4% 87.5%
R5 295 60.7% 80.3% 91.2%
R6 290 62.4% 79.7% 88.3%
R7 287 65.9% 84.3% 90.2%
R8 292 55.1% 77.4% 87.3%
Cumulative — all 7 legs
Top-1: 3.9%
Top-2: 24.8%
Top-3: 48.4%
Bipot 6 legs
pos ≤ 2 (top-2)
Full hit (Top-3)
27.0%
Race n Top-1% Top-2% Top-3%
R3 296 50.7% 72.6% 82.4%
R4 296 47.3% 67.6% 80.1%
R5 295 51.9% 71.2% 84.4%
R6 290 52.1% 65.5% 74.8%
R7 287 54.4% 75.3% 84.0%
R8 292 45.9% 65.8% 77.1%
Cumulative — all 6 legs
Top-1: 1.6%
Top-2: 11.3%
Top-3: 27.0%
Pick 6 6 legs
win
Full hit (Top-3)
7.5%
Race n Top-1% Top-2% Top-3%
R1 297 37.4% 59.9% 73.4%
R2 299 37.8% 65.6% 77.6%
R3 296 30.4% 49.3% 61.5%
R4 296 27.4% 43.9% 58.4%
R5 295 31.9% 49.2% 63.4%
R6 290 30.7% 47.2% 57.9%
Cumulative — all 6 legs
Top-1: 0.1%
Top-2: 2.0%
Top-3: 7.5%
JP 1 4 legs
win (races 1–4)
Full hit (Top-3)
20.5%
Race n Top-1% Top-2% Top-3%
R1 297 37.4% 59.9% 73.4%
R2 299 37.8% 65.6% 77.6%
R3 296 30.4% 49.3% 61.5%
R4 296 27.4% 43.9% 58.4%
Cumulative — all 4 legs
Top-1: 1.2%
Top-2: 8.5%
Top-3: 20.5%
JP 2 4 legs
win (races 5–8)
Full hit (Top-3)
13.4%
Race n Top-1% Top-2% Top-3%
R5 295 31.9% 49.2% 63.4%
R6 290 30.7% 47.2% 57.9%
R7 287 37.6% 53.7% 64.1%
R8 292 27.7% 43.2% 56.8%
Cumulative — all 4 legs
Top-1: 1.0%
Top-2: 5.4%
Top-3: 13.4%

All SAF Venues

Venue State Momentum Races (n) Notes
Fairview P 0.313 2406
Fairview Polytrack B 0.188 348
Hollywoodbets Durbanville G 0.356 669
Hollywoodbets Greyville G 0.156 235
Hollywoodbets Greyville Polytrack G 0.393 2793
Hollywoodbets Kenilworth P 0.429 34
Hollywoodbets Scottsville G 0.319 1251
Turffontein Inside B 0.190 271
Turffontein Standside G 0.384 2735
Vaal B 0.297 2012
Vaal Classic G 0.242 292