Tipster Performance
Sporting Post · 6 sources 4523 settled picks · 4923 total HP covers more races than tipsters (tipsters are selective) ← Daily playsTop-pick (rank 1) performance — all SP bands sorted by Wilson LB
| Tipster | Picks | Wins | Win% | Wilson LB | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ HorsePlay (model rank-1) | 289 | 89 | 30.8% | 0.2652 | -17.2% |
| Magic Tips | 252 | 77 | 30.6% | 0.2601 | -5.6% |
| Computaform | 253 | 77 | 30.4% | 0.259 | -3.7% |
| Morning Line | 255 | 71 | 27.8% | 0.2348 | -17.7% |
| Computaform Ratings | 252 | 63 | 25.0% | 0.2079 | -23.4% |
| Winning Form | 249 | 52 | 20.9% | 0.1697 | -28.6% |
| Sporting Post | 255 | 53 | 20.8% | 0.1692 | -33.0% |
Outsider detection — top-pick SP ≥ 13/1 sorted by Wilson LB
The key differentiator. Which sources can spot big-price winners, not just market leaders? Once ≥ 5 outsider picks per tipster, the consensus badge switches to outsider-specific weights.
| Tipster | Out picks | Wins | Win% | Placed | Place% | Wilson LB | ROI (win) | Weighting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ HorsePlay (Outsider Detective) | 1061 | 69 | 6.5% | 258 | 24.3% | 0.0537 | -43.6% | DQS clue-based selection |
| Magic Tips | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 14.3% | 0.0 | -100.0% | ★ outsider weight active |
| Computaform | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 25.0% | 0.0 | -100.0% | ★ outsider weight active |
| Morning Line | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | -100.0% | need 5 more |
| Computaform Ratings | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 6.7% | 0.0 | -100.0% | ★ outsider weight active |
| Winning Form | 23 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 17.4% | 0.0 | -100.0% | ★ outsider weight active |
| Sporting Post | 15 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 33.3% | 0.0 | -100.0% | ★ outsider weight active |
Wilson LB = confidence-adjusted outsider win rate. When ≥ 5 outsider picks settled,
this replaces the overall weight in the T: N/6 consensus for outsider-priced horses.
⭐ HorsePlay uses the Outsider Detective (DQS clue stack) for big-price picks —
not the ensemble ranking. The row above shows GOLDEN/HIGH/PLATINUM alerts.
Any-pick (ranks 1–3) performance — how often at least one pick lands · sorted by Win%
| Tipster | Total picks | Winners | Win% | Placed | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⭐ HorsePlay (model rank-1) | 864 | 199 | 23.0% | 481 | 55.7% |
| Morning Line | 757 | 164 | 21.7% | 403 | 53.2% |
| Magic Tips | 755 | 155 | 20.5% | 390 | 51.7% |
| Computaform | 751 | 150 | 20.0% | 393 | 52.3% |
| Sporting Post | 754 | 138 | 18.3% | 367 | 48.7% |
| Computaform Ratings | 752 | 137 | 18.2% | 355 | 47.2% |
| Winning Form | 754 | 133 | 17.6% | 349 | 46.3% |
Settlement
Run after each race day to link picks to results:
docker exec horseplay-cogent-web-1 python manage.py settle_tipster_picks
Options: --date 2026-05-05 · --days 7 · --force (re-settle)